Pundits have scrambled to explain Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, pointing to inflation, immigration, Elon Musk and disgruntled young men as factors behind his convincing victory over vice-president Kamala Harris.
But Trump’s strong support from faith-based voters - and especially white born-again Christians - shows the enduring significance of religion in U.S. politics.
The number of Americans who say they are neither religious nor spiritual has doubled since 1999, according to a 2023 Gallup poll. But that leaves an overwhelming proportion of the population who identify as religious (47 per cent) or spiritual (33 per cent).
Sixty-five per cent of the U.S. population also identify as Christians, with up to 40 per cent of Americans attending church at least once a month.
The proportion of U.S. voters who are Christian churchgoers is in long-term decline, but their electoral importance is undeniable.
Christian voters favoured Trump
Given the importance of faith communities, both Trump and Harris appealed to churches in key swing states throughout the election campaign. Two weeks before the election, Harris visited Black churches in Georgia to encourage parishioners to vote. Black churches have been instrumental in mobilizing Black voters since the Civil Rights movement, and Democratic campaigns have consistently worked to engage these voters.
Yet Harris’ efforts to win the backing of Black churchgoers could not overcome Trump’s overall advantage with Christian voters.
Trump’s personal life may raise eyebrows among the devout, but he successfully appealed to evangelicals and Catholics by adopting socially conservative stances on issues such as abortion, protection of religious freedom and supporting school choice.
Exit polls showed Catholic voters, who make up almost one-quarter of the electorate, favored Trump over Harris by a double-digit margin.
Sixty-two per cent of Protestant (and other Christian) voters also supported Trump - a significant advantage given these voters comprise two-fifths of the electorate.
Trump's strongest support came from White born-again Christians, who comprise about 20 per cent of voters, and favoured him over Harris by a four-to-one margin.
In contrast, Harris was backed by the 24 per cent of voters with no religious affiliation by a three-to-one margin.
Trump’s personal life may raise eyebrows among the devout, but he successfully appealed to evangelicals and Catholics by adopting socially conservative stances on issues such as abortion, protection of religious freedom and supporting school choice.
These issues are important for religious communities, who believe Democrats have eroded Christian values in America and driven the nation towards secularisation.
Three weeks before the election, tens of thousands of Evangelical Christians gathered in Washington D.C, waving flags symbolizing their belief that America is a Christian nation and prayed so that Trump can win the election.
Religious leaders, including pastors of megachurches, have been explicit in their political standpoint, and encouraged members to vote for Trump.
Pastor Jack Hibbs, who leads the 10,000-member Calvary Chapel in California, painted Trump as a political leader with the protection and backing of God in his sermon, less than 24 hours after Trump’s failed assassination attempt.
Trump attributed his narrow escape from the assassin’s bullet to God’s protection, saying “it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening”. This rhetoric strengthens the faith-based voters’ belief of Trump as the “anointed one” who will bring America back to its Christian roots.
Religion key to electoral success
Appealing to faith-based voters has been a successful political strategy for other world leaders too.
In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro won the Brazilian presidential election with significant support from evangelical Christians, who make up a large and influential voting bloc.
Bolsonaro, who was dubbed the Trump of the Tropics, focused on issues such as traditional family values, anti-abortion stances and protection of religious freedoms.
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In 2019, then-incumbent Indonesian president Joko Widodo, picked Ma'ruf Amin, chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council and one of the most influential Islamic leaders at the time, to boost his popularity among highly religious voters.
In India, Narendra Modi gained widespread support from Hindu voters, especially in the 2019 elections by emphasizing India’s Hindu identity and aimed to promote Hindu cultural and religious interests.
In the U.S. Trump won with the overwhelming support of evangelical voters in 2016 and again in 2024.
A majority of U.S. voters are religiously devout, and it is likely they will continue to play an important role in deciding future presidential elections.
Riza Casidy is a Professor of Marketing and the Director of Research in the Department of Marketing at Macquarie University.
